Influenza World

Experts agree that in a pandemic the flu virus will spread rapidly, leaving little or no time to prepare. A particularly severe pandemic could lead to widespread illness, a large number of deaths, and damage the economy. Everyday life would be disrupted because many people in many different places would become seriously ill at the same time.

Health services overload

During a worldwide flu pandemic, a substantial proportion of the world’s population will require some form of medical care. The WHO predicts that healthcare systems will become overwhelmed, creating a strain on hospital staff, and a shortage of beds, ventilators, and other supplies.
A relatively conservative estimate has predicted that within a very short time-frame there would be up to:

• 233 million outpatient visits
• 5.2 million hospital admissions
• 7.4 million deaths. [1]

Large number of deaths

The likely number of deaths in a future pandemic depends on:

• number of people infected
• how easily humans are infected
• age of populations, their living environment and conditions, and vulnerability of affected populations
• availability and effectiveness of preventative measures.

Even in the best-case scenario, experts predict that 2–7 million people could die in the next flu pandemic. However, if the pandemic flu virus infects humans particularly easily, this number could be dramatically higher. [2]

Schools and businesses would suffer

In the event of a flu pandemic, it seems likely that many schools would close. However, even if they did remain open, attendance would likely be dramatically reduced as parents would keep their children at home in the hope of avoiding infection. Either scenario would lead to considerable workplace absenteeism because parents would stay home to care for their children, even if they were not sick. The resulting impact on businesses of all kinds would be dramatic.

Decline in travel and leisure activities

As a pandemic spreads, international travel would decline as people try to avoid flu ‘hotspots’ and governments place restrictions on travel. It is very likely that people would quarantine themselves and their family by staying home more often and avoiding places where social contact is likely (e.g. public transport, places of worship, libraries etc.). As people avoid shopping centres, restaurants, sporting events, and cinemas etc., there would be a considerable drop in demand for products and services, creating a huge impact on businesses. 

Damage to the economy

Flu infections during a pandemic will lead to widespread absenteeism among the workforce. This lack of manpower will have a substantial impact on society, with potential breakdowns in essential community services, such as healthcare, public transport and policing.
Vaccines matching the new virus strain will take many months to prepare and distribute. Antiviral drugs will therefore play a key role in the treatment and prevention of flu in a pandemic situation.

1. World Health Organization. WHO checklist for influenza preparedness planning. Available here.
2. World Health Organization. Estimating the impact of the next influenza pandemic: enhancing preparedness. Available here.